Mobile data services will continue be the main engine of growth, offsetting the continued rapid decline of wireline voice revenues. Mobile voice revenue is forecast to grow at a 6% CAGR, but the revenue from non-messaging and messaging mobile data will grow at much higher growth rates: 21% and 12%, respectively.
“Mobile broadband will have the greatest impact in both mature and growth markets, but finding the right business models and managing costs will be the keys to operator success,” says Roz Roseboro, Principal Analyst at Analysys Mason and author of the Worldwide telecoms market forecast 2010–2014.
Operators in mature markets have to contend with largely saturated mobile markets. To increase average revenue per user (ARPU), they must look for new types of service to offer consumers – for example, applications and content – in order to tap into a different source of spending. Consumers in mature, saturated markets are likely to be at, or approaching, the limit for their telecoms services spending. The creation of new business models will enable operators to capture a greater share of content and applications revenue.
“Mobile messaging services are becoming commoditised in mature markets. Usage will decline as other forms of communication, such as social networking, become more popular,” says Roseboro, who also leads Analysys Mason’s Global Growth Markets research programme.
Operators in emerging markets will need to shift their focus towards increasing revenue as the rapid growth in subscriber numbers they have enjoyed in recent years begins to slow. They must also exploit the growth in handset data and content services – demand for these services will grow as content and handset functionality improve and 3G services become more widely available. Increased usage will drive revenue growth, if operators can monetise these services.