Nokia updates mobile device market estimates to include fakes

Beginning in 2010, Nokia is revising its definition of the industry mobile device market that it uses to estimate industry volumes. This is due to improved measurement processes and tools that enable Nokia to have better visibility to estimate the number of mobile devices sold by certain new entrants in the global mobile device market.

These include vendors of legitimate, as well as unlicensed and counterfeit, products with manufacturing facilities primarily centred around certain locations in Asia and other emerging markets.

For comparative purposes only going forward, applying the revised definition and improved measurement processes and tools that Nokia is using beginning in 2010 retrospectively to 2009, Nokia estimates that industry mobile device volumes in 2009 would have been 1.26 billion units.

Based on the industry mobile device market definition used in 2009, Nokia estimated that industry mobile device volumes were 1.14 billion units. Nokia estimates that its mobile device volume marketshare would have been 34% in 2009 on an annual basis.

Again based on the industry mobile device market definition used in 2009, Nokia’s volume market share estimate was 38%. The respective quarterly volume market shares would have been 32% during the first quarter of 2009 (37% based on the 2009 definition), 35% during the second quarter of 2009 (38% based on the 2009 definition), 34% during the third quarter of 2009 (38% based on the 2009 definition) and 35% during the fourth quarter of 2009 (39% based on the 2009 definition).

Nokia is not able to apply the revised definition and improved measurement processes and tools retrospectively to its estimated industry mobile device volumes or Nokia’s estimated volume market share in 2008 due to lack of visibility and data. Thus, the industry mobile device volumes estimated for 2008 and Nokia’s volume market share estimated for 2008 are not comparable with the industry mobile device volumes estimates or Nokia’s volume market share estimates based on the revised definition.

Applying its revised definition of the industry mobile device market applicable beginning in 2010 on a comparable year on year basis, Nokia expects industry mobile device volumes to be up approximately 10% in 2010, compared to 2009. Nokia targets its mobile device volume market share to be flat in 2010, compared to 2009; and targets to increase its mobile device value market share slightly in 2010, compared to 2009.

These expectations and targets are the same as announced by Nokia on 28 January 2010 while now applying the revised market definition.