Juniper Forecasts 3G Evolution

Juniper Research predicts that subscriber numbers for 3G LTE (Long Term Evolution) will approach 24 million by 2012, just two years after the early versions of the technology are expected to be deployed.

The report discusses how LTE is expected to be the long term successor in mobile broadband as it offers a migration path from existing 3G/HSPA technologies already in place. Juniper Research forecasts that, by 2010, LTE – the next generation of mobile broadband (after HSPA), should be going commercial and high definition could by then be a reality on devices.

The recent study notes that LTE’s key goals include: downlink peak data rates up to 100 Mbps with 20 MHz bandwidth, uplink peak data rates up to 50 Mbps with 20 MHz bandwidth, operation in both TDD and FDD modes, increased spectral efficiency over Release 6 HSPA by a factor of two to four and reduced latency

However, the report warns that LTE needs to continually evolve to remain competitive in cost and performance versus the other leading mobile data technologies set to be foremost over the next five years. The report predicts that HSPA will dominate mobile broadband network deployments, consistently accounting for about 70% of the total mobile broadband subscriber base until 2012. Mobile WiMAX is also expected to achieve single digit proportion of the subscriber base by 2012.

Report author, Howard Wilcox says, “We expect 3GLTE to begin to achieve significant market traction towards the 2011 to 2012 timeframe. By 2012, for example, we forecast that 3GLTE will represent around 24 million subscribers globally. As the GSM Association has said recently, it is a natural follow-on from HSPA and will benefit from the extensive installed base of HSPA worldwide. Western Europe will account for over half of LTE subscribers in 2012.”

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